As the new year unfolds, global attention remains fixed on the United States under President Trump second term, with wide-ranging implications for geopolitics, economics, security, and global alliances. 2026 promises to be a pivotal year, marked by continued ideological shifts and strategic recalibrations that could reshape international affairs.
Here’s a clear and comprehensive look at key areas where Trump’s policies will likely influence the world in 2026.
1. Trump Foreign Policy and Global Security
One of the most watched aspects of Trump’s presidency in 2026 will be U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding Latin America and regional conflicts.
In late 2025, the United States conducted strikes targeting drug-related facilities in Venezuela, which marked a significant escalation in Washington’s military posture in the Western Hemisphere. The operation, described by U.S. officials as part of efforts against drug cartels, has drawn controversy and criticism, with opponents warning it could expand into a broader conflict.
Meanwhile, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro signalled a willingness, at least rhetorically, to engage in negotiations with the United States, hinting at a possible diplomatic thaw even amid ongoing tensions.
Beyond the Western Hemisphere, Trump’s administration maintained a robust military posture in 2025, with operations across multiple regions under a doctrine emphasizing strength. This could mean continued U.S. military engagement in 2026, even as debates persist over strategic goals and international law.
2. U.S.–China and Global Great Power Competition
The trajectory of U.S.–China relations remains among the most consequential elements of global order in 2026. Analysts predict that the bilateral relationship will be defined by transactional economic competition and strategic rivalry, particularly in technology, trade, and national security.
Trump’s national security strategy hints at a shift away from the post-Cold War role of the U.S. as a global guarantor, instead emphasising America First priorities and focused geopolitical engagement. This strategy could mean fewer broad alliances but more competitive positioning against China, especially in advanced technologies, AI, and semiconductor supply chains.
How this dynamic unfolds will impact countries across Asia, Europe, and the developing world, as nations decide whether to align with Washington, Beijing, or pursue independent strategic paths.
3. Trump Trade, Tariffs, and Economic Policy
Economically, Trump’s approach entering 2026 is grounded in tariffs and trade leverage, aiming to reduce trade deficits and promote domestic manufacturing. In 2025, high tariffs on trading partners like Canada and Mexico were a hallmark of U.S. policy, justified on national-security grounds and as protection for American workers.
Domestically, Trump has projected strength in GDP growth and pricing stability, linking economic performance to Republican electoral prospects in the midterm elections later this year.
However, consumer sentiment surveys and inflation concerns indicate that economic optimism coexists with real pressures on households, which may affect political narratives and international investor confidence.
4. Immigration, Security, and Travel Policy
One of the more controversial elements of U.S. policy that will shape global perception in 2026 is expanded travel restrictions and immigration control. The U.S. recently implemented travel bans affecting multiple countries, a move positioned as national security policy but criticised as discriminatory by some observers.
These policies could complicate diplomacy and travel relations with key regions, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and parts of Asia, even as the world anticipates major global events like the FIFA World Cup hosted in part by the U.S.
5. Major Global Events and U.S. Leadership Roles
The United States will host several major global events in 2026 that will test its diplomatic and organisational leadership:
- The 2026 G20 Summit in Miami — which Trump has chosen to host at his Doral property — will bring together leaders from across the world to discuss economic cooperation, climate, and security issues. Questions remain about participation and geopolitical tensions within the G20 framework.
- The FIFA World Cup, with multiple U.S. venues, and global athletic gatherings offer soft power opportunities but also highlight tensions between restrictive travel policies and global engagement.
- The 250th anniversary of U.S. independence will feature celebrations that place American identity at the core of national and international narratives, potentially shaping cultural influence in global affairs.
6. Domestic Politics and the 2026 Midterms
Domestically, 2026 will be dominated by the U.S. midterm elections, which will serve as a referendum on Trump’s second-term agenda. Republicans will aim to hold their narrow majorities in Congress, with Trump framing economic performance and national security as key drivers.
These elections will have global implications: shifts in U.S. legislative power could influence foreign aid, defence policy, and continuity in international agreements.
7. What Southeast Asia Should Expect from Trump in 2026
From a Southeast Asian perspective, Trump’s 2026 posture is likely to be transactional, not ideological.
Core expectations:
- Continued pressure on China through trade and security alignments
- Reduced emphasis on multilateral institutions
- Greater focus on bilateral deals tied to economic outcomes
For ASEAN nations, this creates both opportunity and risk:
- Opportunity to negotiate directly with Washington
- Risk of being sidelined if not economically strategic
The region will watch closely whether U.S. leadership appears consistent—or distracted by domestic turmoil.
Final Thoughts
In 2026, the United States under Donald Trump will continue to be a central force shaping global dynamics — economically, politically, and militarily. Allies and adversaries alike will monitor how Trump’s transactional diplomacy, robust security posture, and economic strategies translate into long-term global influence.
For the world, this means engaging with a U.S. that prioritises competitive advantage, regional dominance in its near abroad, and domestic political narratives that are deeply entwined with global leadership ambitions.
The year ahead is likely to be defined by strategic competition, political contests, and significant global events — all under the shadow of a U.S. presidency that refuses to be conventional.
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